Round of 16 predictions (part 1)

...aaaaand we have the first four R16 games cut out for us, and boy are they good. Here's some predictions and observations on each.

Uruguay-South Korea

Should be quite interesting. Uruguay has played some of the best football in the group stage. South Korea has also pleasantly surprised, despite an embarrassing and undeserved loss to Argentina. This one is interesting mostly because the two teams play surprisingly similar brands of football. Uruguay is one of the least technical South American teams, which isn't to say they're poorly skilled (quite the opposite) but that they also have a strong midfield and an expert defense. This is not surprising, given the well-known Italian roots of the Uruguayan people and traditions. South Korea also play a highly cautious game, but they're less technical and less physical. Their strength is in the amazing (and typically Asian) precision of teamwork, which, when joined with still-respectable skill, makes them one of the World Cup's strongest defensive teams when in possession. It should be a low-scoring, tactical game of chess--unless Uruguay gets an early lead thanks to a set piece, which if Cavani and Forlan both play could very well happen: then it will be an all-out war. Prediction: 2-0.

Argentina-Mexico

The one I look forward to the most, honestly. The Albiceleste has dominated its group and not one player has disappointed--not even Messi, who may not have scored but got assists right and left and gave horrible nightmares to those poor Greek, Nigerian, and South Korean defenders. So long as Veron plays, no problem at midfield (not even without Cambiasso... but Diego, what were you thinking?!), and unbeknown to most, Argentina has a very strong defense this year. They're going to need it, because Mexico's game has been sparkling and extremely physical since day one. Manchester United's newest star-boy Hernandez and old-glory Blanco have proven decisive in more than one occasion. On paper, this one is for Argentina, and if Diego's boys play like they can, Mexico stands no chance. But football is beautiful precisely because "on paper" doesn't mean crap! Prediction: 3-1.

Germany-England

This should have been the final. I hate this game and it will be painful to watch. As an AS Roma fan, I love Capello: we owe him the 2001 Serie A title and he's been a friend and teacher as well as a great coach. So rooting for England should be a no-brainer. I've always loved them anyway, and one of my all-time favorite players, Chelsea FC's Frankie Lampard, plays there. But this Germany has won me over, too. I started out hating their coach Loew (whose nose-picking, balls-scratching, armpit-sniffing habits in the 2006 World Cup had been the laughingstock of Italy) and ridiculing such a young and inexperienced team... but their great group and surprisingly skilled individuals can go very far. It's a well-balanced team that's fun to watch, with great fresh talents like Ozil and Khadira as well as the "old" guard of Klose, Lahm, and Podolski. Yes, the 4-0 over Australia doesn't say much, nor does the loss against Serbia--but Germany has played consistently well and I think they can come out on top. Prediction: 1-0.

Ghana-USA

These two had been in the same group in 2006, along with Italy and the Czech Republic. Ghana had won in a tough match then, but things are different now. The great new wonder of African football is not impressing anyone this time. Only two goals in the group stage, both penalties, and so many missed chances it's not even funny. They ditched their most repulsive habit from 2006, that of tackling so hard as to break legs, and that's good; but their football has also lost much of its spark. Au contraire, I've never seen the US play this well. They've been on a constant grow and have played well in all three games of the group stage, dodging some unfortunate ref calls and (most of all) their own lack of cynicism in the box. Unlike Ghana, they're a strong and well-organized team which lacks any seriously skilled individual (Dempsey and Donovan are merely okay: get over it)... but they have no major weak spots, either, and they are very well coached, and both can go a long way. Prediction: 0-1.

Looking forward to what R16 games Groups E through H will give us in the coming two days!

North Korean players go missing...?

The European press is abuzz with the news that four North Korean players have gone missing before the game with Brazil and haven't been seen since. It's difficult not to jump to conclusions. Korea DPR has a totalitarian regime and it's quite possible that the four might have fled and/or sought political asylum somewhere.

For days now I had read unconfirmed rumors on forums that N-Korean players would be sent back to the coal mines if they didn't do well in the World Cup, though that sounds much like the usual propaganda to make enemy dictatorships look bad (plus, it's just internet hearsay).

Two print sources report on virtually the same news. The most "reputable" are the UK's Daily Telegraph and the Italian La Stampa. The latter was supposedly was the first mainstream source to report the news. As for sports websites, Chilean La Tercera and Spanish AS also chime in on it, and the former claims that the news started on a South Korean web site... where exactly, though, is nowhere to be found. Finally, there's some discussion at this forum centered on a Romanian TV news source. (Remember that you can instantly translate entire pages in foreign languages with the Google Translate toolbar here).

What matters is that FIFA is silent on the whole thing on its web site, despite nearly all of the above sources claiming some sort of official confirmation from FIFA. The fact itself that the news came out nearly three days after the fact means either that something's brooding and press coverage is undesirable or that the whole thing is entirely made up or misunderstood. Hopefully we'll know more soon!

Three days in and yet no great games, but...

If you're new to international football, you ought to know that this is typical for the first round of games at the group stage in pretty much any World Cup. The venue is huge, teams are afraid, and they haven't played together at high level in months, maybe years. So it's normal that the first match be reserved for "studying" one's own game as well as the opponent's.

Surely enough, we've seen a lot of fine individual plays and even a few exciting minutes of football here and there... but by and large we're far from how World Cup games can (and will) be like.

Below is my quick, down-and-dirty assessment of the fourteen teams who've played so far in the first three days of the South African mundial.

South Africa

Typical home-team syndrome: want everything, want it now, think they can actually win. If they get lucky, like South Korea in 2002, they may just do something important. Otherwise, they're a rather forgettable team as seen against Mexico.

Mexico

Its first half against SA has been by far the best football seen so far, but they didn't close a game they should have dominated and in the distance they lost both skill and focus. A potential big-time outsider if they get their game straight.

Uruguay

The ghost of the highly technical, strongly physical team that nearly upset Italy in 1990. An uninspired, uninteresting formation that needed no more than its moderate technical means to stop an equally dumbfounded France.

France

The team that shouldn't be here (after Henry's handball against Ireland in the last qualifying match) confirms that it really shouldn't be here. Italian sports newspaper Gazzetta puts it best by wondering "who's supposed to score in this team?" More than that--who's supposed to do anything?

South Korea

Along with Mexico, the most convincing team so far. Their strength is teamwork, like in 2002, but what they have learned since is some skill and a more refined sense of tactics (as also witnessed by the fact that they're the only Asian team to have an Asian coach). They even have the star player in Manchester UTD's Park Ji-Sung. My money is on them to pass in group B with Argentina.

Greece

Might it just have been a bad game? One hopes so, or this team isn't going anywhere. They too are like the ghosts of the tough, skilled, and lucky players who brought home the controversial 2004 European Cup. Maybe their German coach Rehhagel really has exhausted his good luck.

Nigeria

Hard to judge. When they played, they played well; but they were dominated by Argentina for most of the game. Still, with the exception perhaps of Martins, they're light-years from the Eagles who knocked out Spain and (almost) Italy in 1994. But that's only natural.

Argentina

An offensive wonder who... wanders. Against the clunky Nigerian defense they should have scored six. Yes, the Nigerian keeper was in a state of grace, but Messi and (most of all) a horrid Higuain were simply imprecise. None the less, Veron and Messi are inspired and even the defense is kind-of holding, so with more cynicism in the box their ticket to the semis is already printed.

England

A Capello team, for better and worse. By far the most mature and Cup-ready team so far, and yet not quite as concrete as they should be. Never mind Green's mishap: they didn't kill the game when they could (and boy, could they!) and the American goal was in the air anyway.

United States

A game of surprising strength against an all-around better prepared England. They kept playing their game and seriously endangered Green's goal in more than a few occasions. Given as the MLS is currently in session, their physical condition might just be their best weapon (yes, only five play in the MLS, but they're also five key players).

Algeria, Slovenia, Ghana, Serbia

By far the two most utterly boring games seen so far, so not much to say about these. In the case of Ghana and Serbia, we know this isn't their best. Ghana got plain lucky in a game that shouldn't have awarded more than one point each. Hoping to see better/more next time.

Australia withdraw 2018 World Cup bid

About time. Australia can't host a World Cup--can you imagine getting up at 6 in the morning (or waiting until 11 at night) to watch games? Simply out of the question. Sorry, Aussies. Read the news here.

The pool of candidates now is down to England (wow, first the Olympics, now this... they're on a roll); USA (not again... please, not again...); Spain/Portugal (interesting indeed!); Belgium/Holland (didn't we just have a horrible European Cup here?); and Russia (my favorite, for no other reason they haven't hosted a significant international football event yet).

But of course, it's far too early to tell. Meanwhile, a reminder: Brazil 2014 will be the best World Cup ever, and if it isn't, I renounce football!

Paraguayan witches curse Italy

Now it's official: Italy will lose to Paraguay. Screw the bookmakers; the clairvoyants say so, and you just don't fuck with that kind of prediction!

The "news" is being reported all over the Italian media (see here, for example), but I haven't been able to find it anywhere else. I'm wondering if it's even true or--which is more likely--if it's a small and insignificant event that's being blown way out of proportion.

Who cares. It's funny as hell. It'll be ten times funnier when we beat Paraguay. Of course, if we don't... well, then............

Interactive WC calendar

Not really much to talk about today (so far), but check out Spanish sports daily Marca's ultra-sweet, interactive World Cup calendar!

Should North Korea play in the World Cup?

Do you believe that North Korea should be allowed to play in the World Cup? This question had been on the plate for a while now, but it resurfaced last night after incidents at the Nigeria-North Korea warm-up friendly. (Notice that the incidents were unrelated to the game and to either team, and were instead the result of poor safety and security standards by the South Africans.... even if FIFA disagrees with the latter assessment; also see here).

To most people, that's a non-issue; North Korea are regular, fee-paying FIFA members, just as they are UN members. And unlike the UN, FIFA is not even a government or political body. Others claim, though, that the alleged human-rights violations of the North Korean dictatorships ought to rule out its national team from international competition.

What's your opinion?